tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-65113188838712446742024-03-13T13:43:43.848-07:00Brewer's Delight Inc.A slightly random collection of hopefully useful or interesting thoughtsAnonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17747898611061572346noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6511318883871244674.post-9741263294630906702018-02-19T05:30:00.000-08:002018-02-25T11:42:23.883-08:00True Olympic Country StandingsEver wonder how the Olympic medal count would look if you weighted the medal colours or considered the size of the countries? I always have. So with the 2018 winter games I've decided to finally put together a comprehensive ranking based on a wide range of factors.<br />
<br />
And here's what I found: Factors Considered:<br />
<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ho0Bxp0X-As/WpLoR3HkEdI/AAAAAAAAAQI/1roPJZyNqzYEoqJzJ_EKwFPSp-Qw1hucwCLcBGAs/s1600/Capture2018-7.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="508" data-original-width="281" height="400" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ho0Bxp0X-As/WpLoR3HkEdI/AAAAAAAAAQI/1roPJZyNqzYEoqJzJ_EKwFPSp-Qw1hucwCLcBGAs/s400/Capture2018-7.PNG" width="221" /></a><br />
-Medal colour<br />
-Number of medals won<br />
-Country size (population)<br />
-Number of athletes per country (chances to win)<br />
-Wealth of country (removed economic advantage)<br />
-Medals won per athlete sent (winning efficiency)<br />
-Distribution of medals won over event categories (measures breadth of national skill)<br />
-Distribution of athletes over events (spreading of athlete resources)<br />
-Distribution of medals to winners (diminishes effects of star athletes winning multiple medals)<br />
-Climate of country (reduces advantage of coldest countries)<br />
-Abundance of winter sports terrain and facilities<br />
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<i>NOTES: Only countries with more than one medal & greater than 2.5 million population are listed in order to reduce outliers (sorry Liechtenstein ). Adjustment has been made for hockey teams given that they require ~25 athletes but can only ever win a single medal.</i><br />
<i><br /></i>
Now that's interesting, and quite a bit more accurate!<br />
<br />
Here's the same data charted to highlight the distance between scores:<br />
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Analysis:<br />
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Norway: Norway had a great showing at the Olympics as usual. One area where they need to watch out is that too many of their medals are concentrated in the hands of a few superstars.<br />
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Netherlands: the Netherlands exceeded expectations with most of their score coming from athlete efficiency- a small contingent of athletes winning many medals with very few repeat winners. In order to improve they will need to branch out into events beyond speed skating- thise this will be difficult given their climate. The Netherlands secured the title of best over achiever.<br />
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Switzerland: Switzerland overachieved and had a balanced games overall.<br />
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Germany: Germany was the only superpower to come close to meeting expectations. With balanced success in a broad range of events, it's difficult to see where Germany can improve. Efforts to improve might best be focused in areas such as curling hockey and snowboarding.<br />
<br />
Austria: Austria managed to overachieve despite having high expectations coming into the games. If they hope to improve it will need to be in areas off the slopes.<br />
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South Korea: the host nation had an over achieving games. While some of their success can be attributed home field advantage and the host's ability to enter athletes into events, it was nice to see them win medals in for an additional events outside of the skating arena.<br />
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Sweden: Sweden narrowly missed out on sixth place, but can be pleased with its overall result. One area that is lacking is skating events.<br />
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Czech Republic: the Czechs had a very strong showing, narrowly missing out on a hockey medal which likely would have moved them up a few spots.<br />
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Finland: despite a most of its efforts focused in hockey the Finns had a strong showing and can be pleased with their results.<br />
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Belarus: despite sending a very small team and being a relatively poor country, Belarus barely missed out on best overachiever status.<br />
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Canada: Canada had a disappointing Olympics, finishing 11th. While Canada had a balanced effort with athletes in a broad range of events, they came up short primarily due to sending the second largest number of athletes to the games. Canada would do well to reduce the size of its team and focus more of its efforts on winners.<br />
<br />
Slovakia: Slovavia did well considering its size. A larger team entered in a few more events might see them improve.<br />
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China: the Chinese nearly matched expectations, narrowly missing out on 12th place. Expect to see the Chinese continue to improve in the future.<br />
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Japan: Japan had very well balanced games, earning broad success. Slightly more was expected of them given their size and resources.<br />
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Italy: the Italians underachieved, primarily due to a couple of DNFs on the alpine slopes.<br />
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United States: the Americans underachieved and earned the title of worst underachiever. Despite having athletes and success in a range of events, their expectations were high given the size of their country and the number of athletes sent. The Americans need to improve at traditional core events.<br />
<br />
Russia: the Russians had a disappointing games. Too many of their medals were bronze and they need to win in a broader range of events given their size.<br />
<br />
France: this historically strong winter game nation simply did not bring back enough medals for its size.<br />
<br />
Great Britain: the British can be pleased with their results. While not a winter nation they still managed a good showing. Perhaps a focus on speed skating would lead to future success.<br />
<br />
Australia: nearly meeting expectations, the Australians did well. Likely only up from here.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17747898611061572346noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6511318883871244674.post-74661932137646715102017-04-06T11:01:00.003-07:002017-04-06T11:01:56.451-07:00Site Updates<span style="background-color: white; color: #14171a; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 27px; letter-spacing: 0.27px; white-space: pre-wrap;">Check out our updated site </span><a class="twitter-timeline-link" data-expanded-url="http://www.brewersdelight.com" dir="ltr" href="https://t.co/4DAPVLeVPV" rel="nofollow noopener" style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: #0084b4; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 27px; letter-spacing: 0.27px; text-decoration-line: none; white-space: pre-wrap;" target="_blank" title="http://www.brewersdelight.com"><span class="tco-ellipsis"></span><span class="invisible" style="font-size: 0px; line-height: 0;">http://www.</span><span class="js-display-url">brewersdelight.com</span><span class="invisible" style="font-size: 0px; line-height: 0;"></span><span class="tco-ellipsis"><span class="invisible" style="font-size: 0px; line-height: 0;"> </span></span></a><span style="background-color: white; color: #14171a; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 27px; letter-spacing: 0.27px; white-space: pre-wrap;"> and let us know what you think: </span><a class="twitter-timeline-link" data-expanded-url="https://survey.zohopublic.com/zs/VXB02Z" dir="ltr" href="https://t.co/fF7FFT5FRL" rel="nofollow noopener" style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: #0084b4; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 27px; letter-spacing: 0.27px; text-decoration-line: none; white-space: pre-wrap;" target="_blank" title="https://survey.zohopublic.com/zs/VXB02Z"><span class="tco-ellipsis"></span><span class="invisible" style="font-size: 0px; line-height: 0;">https://</span><span class="js-display-url">survey.zohopublic.com/zs/VXB02Z</span><span class="invisible" style="font-size: 0px; line-height: 0;"></span><span class="tco-ellipsis"><span class="invisible" style="font-size: 0px; line-height: 0;"> </span></span></a>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17747898611061572346noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6511318883871244674.post-36955107640052012932017-03-02T10:00:00.002-08:002017-03-03T05:01:49.360-08:00We're launching our biggest project yet!We've got a fantastic idea in development. It involves us pushing the limits of building climate technology and design and we're busy organizing a crowdfunding campaign to help us get it off the ground. So stay tuned, we're just getting started!<br />
<br />
<h4>
Check it out here: <a href="https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/let-the-light-in-architecture#/">https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/let-the-light-in-architecture#/</a></h4>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17747898611061572346noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6511318883871244674.post-87747134303851359392017-01-10T05:46:00.001-08:002017-01-10T05:46:23.661-08:00Looking BusyPeople work hard at appearing to be working hard. We all do it, myself included. But what impact is our work really having? How can we measure our efforts as well as the efforts of those under us? I've found that for me, setting deadlines on just about every task works well. When confronted with a task the first thing I do is start the clock. I give myself 5 minutes of highly focused effort in which I must complete the task. When delegating I always establish a clear guideline on how much of their 'effort currency' an employee should be spending on an assignment. By doing this, I find that productivity increases dramatically. It's easier to commit to focusing intensely on something if there is a defined limit to how much you'll be spending on it. Additionally, this helps minimize the tendency to work at looking or feeling busy.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17747898611061572346noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6511318883871244674.post-4454145379669088772016-12-22T06:35:00.000-08:002016-12-22T06:35:07.736-08:00Getting started and increasing productivity<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><br /></u></b></div>
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Success favors those who act. So just get started. Easy
right? Well sometimes it is. Other times it's difficult to get the ball
rolling. In these cases it's important to remember two things. Firstly, if you've
chosen your task or action item but cannot decide where or how to begin, then
it's likely that your action item is not an action item at all, rather it's a
group of items. Take a moment to refine it and come up with two or three
smaller components of the task and tackle those instead. In all likelihood you
will immediately see what other steps need to be taken. <o:p></o:p></div>
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The other concept to remember is this; sometimes motivating
ourselves to act is as simple as going through the motions. Rather than
consciously trying to determine the specifics of your action item before start
again it, simply try starting with the physical routine first. Often the
cognitive or the ideas will begin to flow quickly after you start going through
the motions. If you think about it this is really a microcosm the first
concept. Need to respond to that email or finish that quote? The first action
is generally something as simple as ‘turn on computer’ followed by ‘open
correct program’ etc. It may seem like autopilot and in a way it is, but the
goal is to be effective and move forward. Ultimately only doing is really
moving forward everything else is just stalling. <o:p></o:p></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17747898611061572346noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6511318883871244674.post-26992548870470676832016-12-17T06:58:00.002-08:002016-12-17T06:58:47.384-08:00Why you need a trade simulator As traders we all have our systems. Our systems are
(hopefully) what governs our trading; a clear set of rules and parameters that
tell us when and how to enter, and more importantly exit our position. It is
only by developing and optimizing, and then not deviating from these parameters
that we can succeed. Unfortunately many novice traders focus almost exclusively
on the entry side of the equation and neglect the vastly more important aspects
of sizing and exit strategy. This is where our trade simulator comes in. Again,
if the amateur even gets this far he focuses all of his attention on testing
his entry strategy; sometimes importing historical data and back testing his
rules. Contrast this with the approach of the pros and more seasoned traders who
run endless simulations and models; focusing instead on exit strategies and
testing their systems in all market conditions. It used to be that only large
institutions with vast resources and supercomputers could do this. Fortunately now,
we all have right in front of us the tools to do this. Armed with your PC and a
simple spreadsheet you too can run thousands of simulations in minutes and test
a myriad of conditions. Then you will see your system as a statistician does,
and can begin to truly optimize it to maximize profits in the long term where
it really counts.<br />
<br />
Check out our video series on building and running a simple, spreadsheet based simulator:<br />
<br />
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17747898611061572346noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6511318883871244674.post-51095170855142041722016-12-15T07:34:00.002-08:002016-12-15T07:34:40.528-08:00Improve your small business with automation and outsourcing<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u>Business Automation and Outsourcing</u></b><o:p></o:p></div>
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<b><u><br /></u></b></div>
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The tools available to businesses today are incredible.
Virtually everything can be had and at astonishingly affordable prices. Need
routine tasks completed? Can't afford to hire another staff? No problem,
there's likely an app for that. Take for example bookkeeping. This used to involve
either a dedicated staff member, or in the case of most small businesses, fell
into the lap of an already overtaxed owner. Enter in the online bookkeeping
app; synced to your accounts and programmable. You can now automate the
majority of your bookkeeping to the point the where the most it requires of you
is simply a routine check-in and review. Often these services can be had for
$20 per month for a small business. Add to this a myriad of service apps for
things like inventory, check out, and point of sale, even bookings and
payments. Suddenly you have the capabilities of a much larger company but
without the larger payroll. Furthermore when you need to have an actual person
for a task you can outsource, sometimes even on a task by task basis eliminating
the need for hiring and taking on more responsibility yourself; thus
solving one of the major hurdles facing entrepreneurs as they attempt to grow
their companies. We've all been there. You wanted to increase sales only to get
them and then need to scale your business while maintaining margins. Now we can
in a way have it all. Admittedly it doesn't do much for employees and people
looking for full-time work but that's a whole separate issue, one that both
employees and employers need to be aware of. Our economy and society are
changing quickly and this concept is a big part of it. <o:p></o:p></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17747898611061572346noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6511318883871244674.post-53472680808322481162016-12-14T06:24:00.001-08:002016-12-14T06:24:35.236-08:00Trade Simulator 2The next video in our trading simulator series is now up! In this video I share the basic formulas involved in making your own simulator. With this you will be accurately modelling your trading systems like a pro. Once you build a simulator, just enter your system parameters and start testing. If you've never modeled trading before you may be in for a surprise; learn how your system actually does in all market conditions.<br />
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<br />Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17747898611061572346noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6511318883871244674.post-31952616697453490392016-12-06T07:57:00.000-08:002016-12-06T07:57:15.320-08:00How to use the power of compounding to set and achieve your goals<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 700; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">How to use the power of compounding to set and achieve your goals</span></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 700; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> Most of us are familiar with the concept of compounding, particularly as it pertains to money and the earning or paying (shudder) of interest. But the benefits of this concept can be applied to a wide variety of situations. Take for example goal setting. We all set goals. Goals help us define what we want and then help us measure our progress towards achieving them. A great deal has been said about two aspects of goal setting. Firstly, we are commonly encouraged to set lofty goals which at the outset seem unrealistic or unachievable but are meant to push us towards an end result vastly greater than where we started and one that is greater than we expected. Secondly, we are taught to set smart goals; goals that are broken down into their smaller and more easily actionable components, all adding up to the end result. The problem with these two approaches is that we can begin to focus on one end of the spectrum to the detriment of the other. A lofty end goal can induce paralysis or feelings of being overwhelmed by the seemingly impossible or insurmountable task, while the other, that is the focusing on small manageable steps, can lead us into complacency and keep us in our comfort zone rather than pushing the boundaries of what we think is possible. So what does compounding have to do with all of this? How can we use this concept to gain all the advantages of both ends of the spectrum to keep us on track towards them? Imagine this example: </span></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Let’s say you want to set a goal to increase traffic to your website. You decide to measure your progress by counting the total traffic to the site every week. So you check your analytics account and find that last week your site generated 300 visits for the week. Not bad you think but it could definitely be better. So what should the target be? Well 1000 hits would be great, right? Sure it’s more than 3 times what you have now but what’s the point of setting a goal if it’s not going to challenge you to push yourself? So you go with a goal of 1000 and then determine your next actions. What are the small steps you can identify and take now to start you on your way? You decide to do 3 social media posts and 1 blog post, and you estimate that this will drive traffic up by 25 hits. It’s a good start but you’re honest with yourself and you know that it’s a long way from your goal of 1000. Still, you plug away for a few more days or weeks trying the same old approach with similar results until interest in your goal fades and gets replaced by some other ‘urgent’ task. Why? Because it’s difficult to maintain focus and drive without ever seeing the reward of achieving your goal.</span></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Now let’s try this again; this time using the power of compounding. So you want to increase traffic to your website to new and record levels. You check your stats and see that you’re at about 300 hits per week. Now you set a goal of increasing this by 10% this week. No problem, that’s only 30 more than last week. A few social media posts, a blog post, and maybe a few phone calls and you’re there. Now make the goal compounding every week so that next week the goal becomes 363 hits (330+10%). Again, you feel this is no problem. Encouraged by your results last week, you hit the ground running and manage to do 5 social media posts and 2 blog posts and you hit your goal again. Savour the reward. Now every week you approach this task with the energy and creativity to accomplish it supplied by the reward of the previous week’s achievement. Like a carrot on a stick, your goal is always just a little bit ahead of you but you enjoy the chase. Plug the numbers into a compound interest calculator and you see that a goal of a 10% increase on 300 hits compounded every week puts you roughly at 1000 hits/week by week 38 and over 3800 hits in week 52. Total traffic for the year: over 42600!</span></div>
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<span id="docs-internal-guid-ca3ef542-d4d7-6cbc-d078-617f05719c32"></span><br />
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Not only does this approach surpass the original goal of 1000 hits/week but it gives you a timeline and encouragement along the way; a powerful tool that will have you both thinking big and taking small steps simultaneously and effectively towards an even greater result.</span></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17747898611061572346noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6511318883871244674.post-78995646720271755382016-12-05T10:52:00.001-08:002016-12-05T10:52:34.119-08:00Trade Simulator Video!Check out the first video in a series about building a trading simulator:<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MpWZfGakFYk">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MpWZfGakFYk</a><br />
<br />
Any trader worth his or her salt should have one of these at their disposal. Trading simulators allow you to test the parameters of your trading system and see what the results would be if you ran thousands of trades. Not only is the process of building your trade simulator an extremely valuable exercise in itself, but after you have used one you will likely find it to be an indispensable tool for building and managing trading systems.<br />
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17747898611061572346noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6511318883871244674.post-92058310083284531772016-12-01T07:53:00.002-08:002016-12-01T07:53:29.733-08:00Calculating Projected Annual Return of a Trading System<div class="MsoNormal">
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">How to combine expectancy and
compounding</span></b></div>
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<b><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/--wcreE_E2HU/WEBHV--63lI/AAAAAAAAAL8/UrCP1zvfT2Uf96SxYM0Wj1h_Qko2T9N_gCLcB/s1600/20160129_100925.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="180" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/--wcreE_E2HU/WEBHV--63lI/AAAAAAAAAL8/UrCP1zvfT2Uf96SxYM0Wj1h_Qko2T9N_gCLcB/s320/20160129_100925.jpg" width="320" /></a></b></div>
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Whether
using an automated algorithm or a manual trading system, it is imperative that
investors have some method of projecting the annual returns of their systems
and portfolios. The human mind has a very difficult time grasping the concept
of probability, and people often assume correlation or cause and effect where
there is none. We search for patterns on a micro level and our brains supply
them for us, happily falsifying the data to appease our desire for order and
structure. Meanwhile what we really need in order to overcome this is to simply
be shown the end results of our system over a long period of time. That way we
will be able to see past the ups and downs and concentrate more objectively on
macro results. Note; I’m not talking about back testing which traders love to
do, rather I’m talking about combining individual results to create a smoothed
projection in simple, relatable terms to show us where we are likely to end up
after plying a system for a year. Put simply, if we could see ahead and
estimate a 5 or 10 percent return, we could objectively determine the quality
of the system and not make rash, unqualified adjustments.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">So how do we
combine all of our trading data into a single number? Basically it goes like
this: First we need to know what the <b>expectancy
</b>of our system is. What is the average net result of all our trades?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Here is the
formula:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> <b>EXPECTANCY
= [(average win percentage * average win size)-(average loss percentage *
average win size)]<o:p></o:p></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><b><br /></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">OR<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></i></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">E=([%W*Wsize)-(%L*Lsize)]</span></b><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">
<i>Note: percentages are expressed
like this: 40% gets entered as 0.40</i><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Now we need
to convert expectancy into a percentage. Simply divide expectancy by principle
(principle being the starting account or portfolio amount at the beginning of
the year):<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">EXPECTANCY/PRINCIPLE=EXPECTANCY%</span></b><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> (again expressed as a decimal- 0.5% is entered as 0.005)</span></i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Next we need
to calculate <b>iteration</b>; that is, how
many times does the system repeat or generate a result in a year? This is pretty
straightforward. Whether you’re marking individual trades or entire portfolios,
simply divide the length of time the position remains open by the total
available time for the period. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Example: if a portfolio gets opened
on a Monday and is closed out on Friday, then ITERATION=52 (52 weeks in a
year).</span></i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Now we need
to plug our expectancy and iteration values into the compound interest formula
and generate a total amount returned after one year.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Here is the
formula:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">RETURN AMOUNT=
[principle*(1+expectancy%) ^ iteration]- principle</span></b><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Finally, to
arrive at our annual expected rate of return, simply divide RETURN AMOUNT by
PRINCIPLE<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">RETURN AMOUNT/PRINCIPLE=RETURN% </span></b><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> <o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></i></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">So there you
have it; a clear and understandable value to show you objectively how your
system is performing. One thing you will notice is that this approach
highlights otherwise imperceptible individual results. A trade, fund, or
portfolio with a profit of a quarter percent on its own doesn’t seem like much
but compounded many times over will produce a healthy return. After all, the
market is about the small, consistent advantage- if only most traders could see
it. Hopefully now they will, armed with this tool. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17747898611061572346noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6511318883871244674.post-71832280471935004722016-11-28T13:03:00.002-08:002016-11-28T13:03:43.922-08:00Improving your home winemaking<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u>Improving your
home winemaking</u></b><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-MRymeCLJPeA/WDybkTvHXaI/AAAAAAAAALo/38MN2kKwIokiXhHK-FFC_50nP5GhQSmlgCLcB/s1600/20130904_205223.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-MRymeCLJPeA/WDybkTvHXaI/AAAAAAAAALo/38MN2kKwIokiXhHK-FFC_50nP5GhQSmlgCLcB/s320/20130904_205223.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><br /></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Like every home winemaker in the world, I’m eternally
striving to improve the quality of my wines. That’s not to say the quality is
low; quite the opposite actually. The quality is such that purchasing
commercial wines at $12 to $20 on average seems utterly wasteful given that my
wines are more like $2.50 to $3.00 per bottle and are easily comparable in
quality; and in at least 50% of cases, even better in my opinion. It’s not a ridiculous claim either, especially
when you consider how far wine kits have come.
Many people don’t realize that the juice in these kits is often pressed
from the same grapes as your favorite commercial wine; having been grown in the
same vineyards. I won’t go so far as to
name names, but it’s no secret that many of the world’s big wine brands also fall under the corporate structures of wine kit manufacturers. It’s a great way to profit from excess supply
from their vineyards. Add this to the
fact that before the ingredients arrive at your local shop they have been
scrutinized by professionals to ensure consistent quality. So with a little experience, the home
winemaker can achieve results like never before. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
So where do you go when you feel like you’ve reached a point
where you’re consistently putting out top quality and stylistically correct
wines? And by that I mean your Cabernet Sauvignon tastes like Cabernet
Sauvignon and your Pinot Noir tastes like Pinot Noir and they don’t share an
underlying similarity with every other wine you make. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Two places you can and certainly should go if you’re an
experienced home winemaker are: 1) adapt fermentation schedules to the variety
and style of the wine you’re making; don’t just use a cookie cutter approach
the treat all wines the same. While
we’re at it, let’s throw various fermentation temperatures into the mix. Try fermenting each batch at different
temperatures according to style.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2) Switch out your yeast.
Most wine kits come equipped with EC – 1118 yeast as a standard. It’s hearty and foolproof and will produce
consistent results, but used across the board, your wines will all have a
similar tone. For the sake of a 99¢
packet of a different yeast strain, you can really make each batch unique. Plus you can now use your leftover packets of
1118 to make some nice bread. I’ve done it and it’s delicious.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
All of this assumes of course that you’re ready and capable
of adapting carefully constructed kits to make them your own. This is NOT a trivial matter. These kits have a massive input of knowledge
and resources and changing them is a bit like modifying your car; you become
the engineer. The original design and
function has now been thrown out the window and you run an extremely likely
risk of making it worse, not better. How
do you know if you’re up to it? Do you
have winemaking notes and spreadsheets on every batch going back 10 years? Do you have a strange propensity to smell
everything? Do others plead with you to
share your wines with them, or do you have to place it in their hands? If you meet these criteria then go for it,
one batch at a time, changing one variable at a time.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
Cheers<o:p></o:p></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17747898611061572346noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6511318883871244674.post-9399256466457420942016-07-14T08:30:00.001-07:002016-07-14T08:30:23.983-07:00Motion Sensing Scarecrow Review<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-rKFAIHphU1E/V4evfv38XkI/AAAAAAAAAKg/h_14g2A06-gipAFruvl238QBZCGus67xQCLcB/s1600/20160707_141013.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="170" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-rKFAIHphU1E/V4evfv38XkI/AAAAAAAAAKg/h_14g2A06-gipAFruvl238QBZCGus67xQCLcB/s320/20160707_141013.jpg" width="320" /></a><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-4xeaBUOGrDU/V4euYy1JznI/AAAAAAAAAKc/tH8Oo_SVlJUpIZkoOUVc8-49Pf29Hg6DgCEw/s1600/20160521_085459.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="180" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-4xeaBUOGrDU/V4euYy1JznI/AAAAAAAAAKc/tH8Oo_SVlJUpIZkoOUVc8-49Pf29Hg6DgCEw/s320/20160521_085459.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><br /></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u>Our scarecrow
experience<o:p></o:p></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This year we finally decided to take the plunge and
converted our backyard entirely into a garden; out with the grass entirely, and
in with the flowers and vegetables. A
good plan to be sure, but with one major challenge: the local wildlife is equally
enamored with the idea. As we discovered
last year with our small plot –it’s extremely difficult to raise vegetables to
maturity without the rabbits, squirrels, and groundhogs, etc. feasting on them before we do.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Now one would think that with the yard completely enclosed
by an 8 foot fence, we would have an edge in the defense category, and it does
help but the reality is that we would need to extend the fence coverage both
underground and over top of the entire yard to ensure 100% protection; a great
solution if you don’t consider the cost.
So we needed a different approach.
Enter the modern day version of the scarecrow; scarecrow® by Contech. The
idea is simple: an infrared motion sensor attached to a sprinkler head, and powered
by a 9V battery. Every time anything
warm blooded (including you) enters the area, a short blast of water from the
sprinkler startles the culprit and sends them running; harmless and effective, and @ $70 cheap
coverage for a small yard. But does it
actually work? We’ve had ours for three
months now and on balance I would say yes.
Sure, we’ve had the odd visit from the groundhog next door, and I found
it helps keep everyone on their toes if you move the scarecrow to a new
location occasionally. So the scarecrow is ultimately part of a solution that I
would recommend.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>Note:</b> In our case
we also had to make a modification to the device setup. After the first few
days of use I noticed that the scarecrow seemed to work only intermittently. At
first I wasn’t sure if this was normal operation as it does apparently
randomize its operation to an extent. It
turns out it wasn’t working properly.
The issue was that the water pressure at our house is too high for the
9V battery to open the water valve unless the battery is at 98% capacity. The solution: a trip back to Canadian Tire to
buy an RV pressure control (fits on your faucet before the garden hose,
regulates pressure to 40 PSI, cost $20.00). Problem solved. Now it works as advertised – expect 5-6
months on a single battery. <o:p></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
So I’m pleased with this overall, but I’m concerned that if
others have this issue, how likely are they to figure out how to fix it? I think the pressure control should have been
included in the scarecrow design, but I understand that on product like this,
keeping the price point in the $50 to $75 range is important. Anyway, that’s my 2¢. Hopefully if anyone is having the same issue
they will come across this post.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<o:p></o:p>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17747898611061572346noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6511318883871244674.post-9051476984571560182016-04-19T17:50:00.000-07:002016-04-19T17:50:50.171-07:00How to record changes from a single cell to a table in ExcelI recently needed to find information on how to record the current output from a single cell to a new cell in a table in MS Excel. To clarify: I wanted to record the current value in A1 to a column starting with say C1, then have the value of A1 update (iterative calculation) and drop the value into C2 and so on for as many iterations as I want. There are a few solutions out there but almost all of them require VBA and I wanted a formula solution. After much research I came across this post: <a href="http://exceluser.com/excel_help/questions/timetrack.htm">http://exceluser.com/excel_help/questions/timetrack.htm</a>. The formula solution here works well so I thought I would share it in the hopes of making it easier to find for anyone else who needs it.<br />
<br />
Armed with this formula, I was able to create an equities trading simulator which runs any particular strategy you wish to test, and compiles the results of 1000 trades in order to then calculate the strategy expectancy.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17747898611061572346noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6511318883871244674.post-56169814425872405432016-04-19T10:50:00.000-07:002016-11-15T06:15:50.456-08:00Our new blogWe've stared a new blog! Actually 2 new blogs. There's this one which you're reading now, as well as <a href="http://icffoundations.blogspot.ca/">ICFfoundations.blogspot.ca</a>. Of course we're still using our original blog: <a href="http://bentleybrewers.blogspot.ca/">bentleybrewers.blogspot.ca</a>. That will still be the go to place for beer related topics. This new blog will cover a wider range of topics mostly related to business but occasionally we'll throw in something from left field. So stay tuned. We're just getting started!Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17747898611061572346noreply@blogger.com0